The Modi magic has not really worked in Goa, unless one factors in that the party has been in power continuously since 2017 but even that by breaking the Congress and cobbling together a majority through smaller parties and independents.
March 31, 2024
By Pushpa Iyengar
The Modi magic has not really worked in Goa, unless one factors in that the party has been in power continuously since 2017 but even that by breaking the Congress and cobbling together a majority through smaller parties and independents. The same goes for the 2 Lok Sabha seats, North Goa and South Goa.
The North Goa seat has been won by the Union Minister of State for Tourism, Shripad Naik since 1999. That same election, South Goa got a BJP face (Ramakant Angle). However, in the 2004 polls, the South Goa seat was wrested by the Congress whose candidate was a former CM, Churchill Alemao. His resignation necessitated a by-election and Franscisco Sardinha, who also is the current MP, was sworn in. Sardinha, an ex-CM, won again in 2009. But once again the seat changed hands (Narendra Sawaikar was elected) in 2014 when Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s PM. Sardinha was bypassed by the High Command and the ticket was given by Reginaldo Lourence, who says he is an Independent MLA but has thrown in his lot with the ruling BJP.
But Sardinha was back in the picture in the 2019 election and Modi’s heft did not get the sitting MP, Narendra Sawaikar, over the finish line. Although he lost by a mere 9,000 plus votes, he had to concede to Sardinha.
Surprise surprise!
This time he was in the mix. The others were ex-deputy CM Chandrakant ‘Babu” Kavlekar, Damu Naik, ex-CM Digamkar Kamat, Speaker of the Assembly Ramesh Tawadkar. The latter two declined and got a rap on the knuckles from BJP Chief Sadanand Tanavade saying they should behave like “loyal soldiers” of the party.
However, the BJP surprised one and all by choosing to go for a women candidate and floated the idea. For two weeks, it seemed as if the BJP may have bitten off more than it could chew since none of its mahila karyakartas are high profile, including Sulakshana Sawant, who happens to be CM Pramod Sawant’s wife, and more relevantly, the head of Goa’s Mahila Morcha. But incredibly, the BJP zeroed in on Pallavi Dempo, the wife of industrialist Shrinivas Dempo, who may have been backing BJP from afar but was far from the rough and tumble of politics.
BJP plays safe
The names shortlisted for the North Goa seat included former ministers and MLA, Dayanand Mandrekar and Dilip Parulekar and Dayanand Sopte respectively. But after making him sweat, the BJP put Shripad Naik on the ticket in the first list that it released.
Incidentally, all belong to the Bhandari samaj, which at about 30 per cent of the Hindu population, forms the largest caste group in the state, and plays a major role in deciding the future of any political party.
Although Shripad Naik has been popular with his constituents, the demography will play a part dominated as it is by Hindus - and more relevant in recent times, “outsiders” aka non-Goans including workers and businessmen in casinos, tourism industry and professionals who have relocated to Goa and favour the BJP.
How will the cookie crumble? (use pic of defectors)
Traditionally, North Goa, where Hindus constitute 76 per cent of the population, has been BJP’s bastion, while South Goa, where Christians form 36 per cent, has veered towards the Congress. Muslims too are more in the south (10 per cent) than in the north (7 per cent), and have been inclined to the Congress.
Another factor is that the BJP has 18 MLAs from South Goa, albeit many of them defectors after being voted on a Congress ticket, and is working to snatch the seat from the Congress. In the 40-member assembly, the ruling party has 33 MLAs supporting it (20 BJP, 2 Maharastrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), 3 Independents and 8 Congress defectors) while the opposition includes the 3 remaining Congress MLAs, 2 Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), 1 Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP) and 1 Goa Forward Party (GFP).
While the BJP is out and about, the Congress is sleeping
Thus, while the BJP has the edge in North Goa, the Congress will struggle to retain South Goa if it fights alone. Its dilemma is also whether it can bypass a minority candidate, with even South Goa no longer minority-dominated.
The Congress invitation to members led to 15 applications including by Sardinha, former GPCC president, Girish Chodankar who as a “special invitee” of the CWC has clout and Captain Viriato Fernandes, a prominent face in the movement to preserve Goa.
In North Goa, former Union minister Ramakant Khalap has thrown his hat in the ring.
New factor
In the 2022 assembly elections, the Christian vote split was seen as the primary reason for the Congress losing. This election will also see a new factor with the RGP announcing candidates for both seats last December itself. Its head Manoj Parab has already put-up posters in North Goa. Safeguarding Goan identity and land, addressing “uncontrolled” migrant influx, and upholding Goan livelihoods are among issues in its manifesto.
RGP MLA Viresh Borkar has denied that his party would split the secular votes which was also the fear when AAP named Benaulim MLA, Capt Venzy Viegas, for South Goa, sending the Congress into a tizzy. However, recent talks led to AAP conceding South Goa for a seat in Haryana. But one cannot help feeling that if only the Congress, which was in fighting spirit to get the AAP to back out of contesting, would show the same enthusiasm to name its candidates, the scenario would have been bristling with spirit.
After formalizing an alliance between BJP and JD(S) for LS polls, Goa CM Pramod Sawant was even in Kerala and Telangana stategizing poll plans. He says, “Goa is a new political gateway to South India.”
Will his prediction come true?
